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Turnaround in Gold, Silber und Euro?

Vergangene Woche (KW 5/2016) hatten wir einen Ausbruch in Gold über 1.130 USD, in Silber über 14,55 USD als auch im EUR/USD bei über 1,095 und Platin bei über 896 USD. Der Anstieg dauert bis in die Kalenderwoche 6 an. Gleichzeitig brechen die Aktienmärkte weltweit ein. Was hat das zu bedeuten? Sind es die Konjunktursorgen in China, der Preisverfall beim Öl oder eine neue Finanzkrise? Wie so oft können Ereignisse nicht isoliert betrachtet werden.

Fakt ist, dass die Bankenaktien in den letzten Handelstagen massiv eingebrochen sind. Dieses hat in Südeuropa (Italien und Griechenland) begonnen, zwischenzeitlich aber auch Deutschland und Amerika erreicht. Die Commerzbank mit 6,21 Euro ist bis nahe der Tiefststände von Juli 2013 eingebrochen. Noch schlimmer hat es die Deutsche Bank erwischt. im Tief 13,03 Euro um einiges tiefer als in der Finanzkrise im Januar 2009 mit 13,39. Aber auch die amerikanischen Banken wie Citigroup und die Bank of America mussten kräftig Federn lassen. Konjunktursorgen, die Zinserhöhung in den USD oder die Sorge um Kreditausfälle bei Ölunternehmen und andere Unternehmen mit kapitalintensiven Geschäftsmodellen wie Solar- und Biotech-Unternehmen sind wohl die Auslöser. Über die genauen Gründe kann man nur spekulieren. Prognosen von BP und US-Banken sehen einen Ölpreis von unter 20 USD pro Fass WTI für möglich. Wir finden das Kaffeesatzleserei, doch das Öl befindet sich weiterhin im Abwärtstrend bei aktuell 27,50 USD.

Nach einen fulminanten Anstieg in Gold bis auf über 1.260 USD, bei Silber bis fast 16 USD und im Euro bis 1,1377 USD konsolidieren diese aktuell auf hohen Niveau. Obwohl kurzfristig überkauft (Slow Stochastics 9,5,3 und Trendoscillator TO20) halten wir diese 3 Tradingideen, nach deren Konsolidierung, weiterhin für interessant auf der Longseite. Gold ist aktuell im Trendoscillator der letzten 20 Tage bei 107,4 oder 7,4% über den Durchschnitt der letzten 20 Tage, gestern, am 11. Februar im Hoch waren das historische 111. Im September 2008 gab es ähnliche Extreme. Seid dem ersten Ausbruch bei 1.150 USD sind wir in Gold innerhalb von 13 Handelstagen bis auf 1.263,90 USD gelaufen. Sollten wir uns in der Konsolidierung über 1.200 USD halten können, oder nach der Konsolidierung über die 1.200 USD ansteigen, muss man von der Überwindung des Abwärtstrends aus 2011 ausgehen.

Silber hat eine ähnlich spektakuläre Rallye hingelegt. Vom Ausbruch bei 14,40-14,60 USD am 3. Februar sind wir bis 16 USD im Hoch am 11. Februar gelaufen. Der Trendoscillator der letzten 20 Tage steht bei 107,3 oder 7,3% über den Durchschnitt der letzten 20 Tage. Für Silber kein besonderes Extrem. Im April 2006 waren das 21% über den Durchschnitt der letzten 20 Tage. Einen TO(20) von über 110 sind im Silber eher die Regel als die Ausnahme. Eine Konsolidierung vor dem nächsten Anstieg wäre aber auch hier nicht schlecht. Zur Überwindung des langfristigen Abwärtstrends könnten die Marken zwischen 16,20-16,40 USD wichtig werden. Diese sollten als erstes überwunden werden.

Euro in USD

Nach dem Moto „Totgeglaubte leben länger“ konnte uns der Euro mit einem Ausbruch nach oben bei 1,095 USD überraschen. Im Zuge von Gold, Silber und der eventuell ausbleibenden und zuvor bereits eingepreisten nächsten FED-Zinserhöhung im März ist der Euro bis auf 1,1377 USD am 11. Februar gelaufen. Für einen weiter steigenden Euro sollte der vorherige Widerstand bei 1,1000 zur Unterstützung werden und diesen in der Konsolidierung nicht mehr unterschreiten.

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