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Silberminen

Die Preise für Silber steigen und steigen. Im Jahr 2010 hat sich das Edelmetall sogar deutlich stärker verteuert als Gold. Anders als beim Gold wird der Preis nicht in erster Linie von der Angst vor Inflation getrieben. Denn Silber wird im großen Maß auch als Industrierohstoff verwendet. In der Fotografie, in der Medizin und in der Elektrotechnik wird das Metall verwendet.

Von der Hausse konnten auch Silberminenaktien profitieren. Denn Silberminengesellschaften übernehmen nicht nur die Förderung und den Vertrieb, sie sind in den meisten Fällen auch Eigentümer der Minen. Preiserhöhungen schlagen sich unmittelbar in ihren Gewinnen nieder. Jeder zusätzliche Euro, den der Silberpreis steigt, ist im Idealfall auch ein Euro zusätzlicher Gewinn.

Allerdings bergen Silberminenaktien auch eine Reihe von Risiken. Die größten Vorkommen finden sich heute in Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern. Rund die Hälfte des Silbers wird in den Ländern Peru, Mexiko, China und Chile gefördert. Immer wieder haben Verstaatlichungen oder Kriege die Minenbetreiber viel Geld gekostet. Die Kursentwicklung der Bergbaugesellschaften hängt somit nicht alleine vom Silberpreis ab. Umgekehrt heißt das natürlich auch, dass die Aktionäre dieser Unternehmen bei politischer Stabilität in den Förderregionen einen Extrabonus kassieren und mitunter auch bei fallenden Silberkursen Kursgewinne realisieren können.

Investoren sollten sich daher darüber informieren, in welchen Ländern die entsprechende Minengesellschaft aktiv ist. Auch die USA, Australien, Polen und Kanada sind große Förderländer. Die Gefahren von Enteignung und politischer Instabilität sind hier weitaus geringer. Allerdings begrenzt das auch die Gewinnchancen. Denn Förderrechte sind dann deutlich schwieriger zu bekommen und deutlich teurer als in instabilen Ländern. Prinzipiell gilt: Je risikoreicher und schwieriger die Förderung ist, desto höher sind auch die Gewinnchancen. Denn keine Bergbaugesellschaft wird für eine Miene in einer instabilen Region viel Geld bezahlen. Bleibt die politische und wirtschaftliche Situation wider Erwarten stabil, winken hohe Gewinne. Wem Sicherheit wichtig ist, der sollte Unternehmen wählen, die überwiegend in Europa, Nordamerika und Australien aktiv sind. Wen die Aussicht auf hohe Chancen lockt, der sollte zu Gesellschaften greifen, die vor allem in Südamerika, Asien oder Afrika investieren.

Weniger wichtig sind dagegen die sonstigen Förderbedingungen. Ob die Vorkommen sehr tief oder direkt unter der Erde liegen, schlägt sich im Regelfall schon in den Kosten für die Förderlizenzen nieder. Riskant wird es nur, wenn die Gesellschaft auf einen steigenden Silberpreis spekuliert. Mitunter sind die Vorkommen so schwer zugänglich, dass sich die Förderung zu aktuellen Marktbedingungen gar nicht lohnt. Nur wenn die Silberpreise weiter steigen, macht eine Ausbeutung Sinn.

Zuletzt haben sich in vielen Ländern auch die Lohnkosten als Risikofaktor erwiesen. In Südafrika, dem neuntgrößten Förderland, stiegen sie so stark an, dass sich die Ausbeutung einiger Vorkommen nicht mehr lohnte. Auch hier gilt: Ein Investment in den Industriestaaten ist sicherer, in den Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern chancenreicher.

Ein anderes Risiko sind die Silberreserven. Nach einer Berechnung des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung RWI dürften die weltweiten Vorkommen in rund 30 Jahren erschöpft sein. Dann geht den Silberminengesellschaften die Arbeit aus. Gelingt es ihnen nicht, sich neue Geschäftsfelder zu erschließen, stehen sie vor dem Aus. Eine mögliche Alternative ist es auf Unternehmen zu setzen, die bereits heute in verschiedenen Bergbausegmenten aktiv sind, die nicht nur Silber, sondern beispielsweise auch Platin fördern. Dort reichen die Ressourcen noch für schätzungsweise 250 Jahre. Zudem sind einige Unternehmen nicht nur in der Förderung, sondern auch in der Auf- und Weiterbearbeitung von Silber tätig, beispielsweise im Recycling. Allerdings haben sich Prognosen wie die oben zitierten in der Vergangenheit oft als falsch erwiesen.

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